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  1. #11
    XCR Guru Sean K.'s Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mjorin View Post
    I think everything returns to normal within a month. That's all.
    I hope you're right....but I'm afraid the economic damage will be far reaching.
    "Necessity is the plea for every infringement of human liberty. It is the argument of tyrants; the creed of slaves."-William Pitt the Younger

  2. #12
    XCR Guru mjorin's Avatar
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    I suspect cruise ships are toast and travel will suffer for awhile. But the greatest consumers in the history of the world will not have consumed in a month and will go hog wild.

    I'm praying we pull out collective heads out and move critical manufacturing back to US soil, especially pharmaceutical and medical.
    "Spes Mea in Deo Est"--My hope is in GOD
    The antidote for fifty enemies is one friend.--Aristotle

  3. #13
    XCR Guru TomAiello's Avatar
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    I see a slide much longer than a few months. I think the USA will try to pull out of this too early and create a second wave here.
    - Tom Aiello
    [email protected]

    ...I don't care, I'm still free, you can't take the sky from me...

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  5. #14
    XCR Guru fmunk's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sean K. View Post
    And don't get me wrong, I'm driving that fast too...difference is, I'm actually paying attention and not on my phone swerving into other lanes by accident. Luckily, we don't have the slow drivers except in the carpool, which is frustrating when it becomes the regular #1 lane at 9am.
    Same. When I am driving my eyes are my radar. I'm scanning all directions.
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  6. #15
    XCR Guru fmunk's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mjorin View Post
    I think everything returns to normal within a month. That's all.
    A month?? Even "I alone can fix it" changed his tune from "it'll just go away like a miracle" to "July-August". Leading epidemiologists say even longer. I think I'll side with people who actually work on and study germs than a guy who didn't know where Seoul Korea was and thought he could order to have the entire city of 20 million (of another nation) moved further away from the DMZ. The guy doesn't read anything or retain any information provided to him. The person behind the scenes who is actually "in charge" is Kushner, who has no experience in government or crisis management.

    FY 2020 is going to be a wash. The worse has yet to come. We're only at the trailhead of this uphill climb.



    Quote Originally Posted by TomAiello View Post
    I see a slide much longer than a few months. I think the USA will try to pull out of this too early and create a second wave here.
    A very likely possibility.
    Last edited by fmunk; 03-24-2020 at 10:40 AM.
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    Fool-proofing serves only one purpose: identify bigger fools.

  7. #16
    XCR Guru Sean K.'s Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by TomAiello View Post
    I see a slide much longer than a few months. I think the USA will try to pull out of this too early and create a second wave here.
    I tend to agree.

    I'm guessing your wife isn't an epidemiologist, but what does she think of all this?
    "Necessity is the plea for every infringement of human liberty. It is the argument of tyrants; the creed of slaves."-William Pitt the Younger

  8. #17
    XCR Guru TexasChris's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sean K. View Post
    I hope you're right....but I'm afraid the economic damage will be far reaching.
    I estimate that at least 1.5 million (on the very conservative end) of us are headed to the hereafter thanks to covid, which sucks....the economic impact is going to be biblical though. Hate to be super cynical guy, but I expect tptb to ensure it.
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    Do what you've always done, get what you've always got. ----- Have gun. Will travel.

  9. #18
    XCR Guru Sean K.'s Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by TexasChris View Post
    I estimate that at least 1.5 million (on the very conservative end) of us are headed to the hereafter thanks to covid, which sucks....the economic impact is going to be biblical though. Hate to be super cynical guy, but I expect tptb to ensure it.
    Personally, I think this was handled all wrong...

    From not locking down our insecure border (which should have been secured decades ago precisely for this reason as I often stated, as well as terrorist threat AND illegal immigration), to not cancelling all flights in and out of the US in late January.....to now shutting down everything in hopes of "flattening the curve". We are burning the village to save it and not thinking through the ramifications.

    For instance: fuel. "Oh, it's essential"....so they're going to keep producing....EXCEPT....if no one is driving to work, there will be an over supply of gasoline. When you refine oil, you don't just pull out diesel for the trucks moving goods across the country, you also have to pull out kerosene, jet fuel, gas, etc. What do you do with the excess no one is using? You put it in tanks for consumption later. But, there's no room left in the tanks to keep refining...so you have to shut down. No more diesel. How do goods get to market without that diesel? "Uh...shit!".

    We're doing it wrong, IMO.

    65.7% of the people who went on ventilators in Wuhan DIED. https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...rticle/2763184 The article is from Feb. 13 (read the "Abstract" for dates)...I've read more recent reports that 95% of people who went on vents in Wuhan died. Vents don't seem to be the panacea for this the medical community would have us think. The anti-virals seem to be the most effective in terms of treatment. Those at highest risk should self isolate, we need to be able to test for CVD-19 at will, and we need to be able to buy anti-virals without overly burdensome trials & across borders in contrast to current laws that make pharmaceuticals a monopoly...and then we need to get back to work. A vital economy is necessary to fund all the health related necessities that such a pandemic will require.
    Last edited by Sean K.; 03-24-2020 at 11:07 AM.
    "Necessity is the plea for every infringement of human liberty. It is the argument of tyrants; the creed of slaves."-William Pitt the Younger

  10. #19
    XCR Guru TomAiello's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by TexasChris View Post
    ....the economic impact is going to be biblical though. Hate to be super cynical guy, but I expect tptb to ensure it.
    If you expect that (and I do) you can do some things to prepare. We're clearing debt and creating credit lines on real estate so that we will be in a position to buy when we think we're near the bottom. If we can establish credit lines based on current values that will be a lot of down payments on depressed values 9 months or a year from now.
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    - Tom Aiello
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    ...I don't care, I'm still free, you can't take the sky from me...

  11. #20
    XCR Guru TomAiello's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sean K. View Post
    I'm guessing your wife isn't an epidemiologist, but what does she think of all this?
    We're pretty much bunkering down. She saw this coming ahead of the media, so we laid in a fairly large set of supplies, and pulled the kids out of activities before things got shut down anyway. To say that she's concerned would be a fairly big understatement.
    - Tom Aiello
    [email protected]

    ...I don't care, I'm still free, you can't take the sky from me...

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