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Guys, if you don’t believe this “doc who is telling you that you have no cancer”, so to speak,, because I genuinely don’t want you to be eaten up by this worry, then by all means seek a second opinion from another “doc.” I really do care, I just think it’s better to worry about stuff that is more likely to happen. Like the hypothetical tax law you described just above — that will not ever become law. The possibility is so attenuated that even when we apply Murphy’s law, it will not come to pass. All kinds of other stuff, however, will. Take a breather and shoot some of the ammo stash down range and enjoy the fresh spring air. 😄
 

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Tom, I don’t disagree that takings are awful impositions, and like you, the camps horrify me. Just don’t get eaten alive by worry about really unlikely fears.
 

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Discussion Starter · #23 ·
...because it is collateral for a debt that was taken with the understanding that it could happen (like when you stop paying a car loan).
I think I agree with you here.


That's a private entity collecting a debt--definitely not a government taking or seizure.

Enforcing private contracts is a reasonable responsibility of the courts. Favoring the government in its contracts (either with private parties or with other governments) is a clear violation of the underlying principals we group together and call 'the rule of law.'

Justice Gorsuch has written extensively on this issue, most recently here:

 

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Discussion Starter · #24 · (Edited)
Guys, if you don’t believe this “doc who is telling you that you have no cancer”, so to speak,, because I genuinely don’t want you to be eaten up by this worry, then by all means seek a second opinion from another “doc.”
Unfortunately, the 'don't worry, it'll be fine' line has been used in the past, far too often, by those with ill intent. And since we've all seen the consequences of that, I'm extremely suspicious when I hear it.

It's not just you, though. One of my best friends and I frequently go around about this kind of thing, because he genuinely worries that I am too concerned about things he thinks have a low likelihood of occurring (most recently, he assured me there was no way the democrats could take both Georgia senate seats, so my fears about the incoming Biden administration were largely unfounded, because any truly radical actions would be blocked the the GOP in the senate).
 

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Yeah I won’t tell you not to worry about those things. I hear ya. I’m just saying it’s probably a good idea to separate the more immediate and probable worries from the dystopian sci fi. That doesn’t mean be unprepared, of course. It’s just so hard to know what to do. I’m saving my pennies for my XCR that won’t be ready for some time, and so I’m worried that I will regret not having purchased something now because a ban seems like one of those more likely worries. I just keep reminding myself of how much more I will enjoy that XCR than a compromise gun that I could have now.
 

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Show me a case where a judge ignored a taking, like allowed a taking to occur without just compensation, and then wasn’t reversed by the court of appeals. Even the 9th circuit has been protective of individuals’ rights to just compensation for takings. I understand the fear that the other side’s appointed judges will do things you disagree with; but just compensation for takings isn’t an issue that falls on a right/left divide among judges. And in legislative/local government politics it’s actually historically been conservative business interests who have tried to erode takings law because of their interest in land development, and that has largely been unsuccessful anyhow. It would take a constitutional amendment to get to where the conspiracy theory described above comes anywhere close to reality.
Well, it's in Canada, so.....

We may find takings when it comes to guns....just as no one was compensated during the bumpstock ban....granted that was overturned....for now.
 

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Tom I agree with Justice O’Connor regarding condemnation of property. That in no way contradicts what I said above. To be clear, she is talking about real property. Most of the time personal property is seized — and there’s no way she was talking about that — it’s because of its entanglement with criminal enterprises (like drug dealing out of a house or car) or because it is collateral for a debt that was taken with the understanding that it could happen (like when you stop paying a car loan). There will always be people who hold out and say no compensation for condemned land is just, especially irreplaceable specific family properties etc. but like I said above that’s a different position (that there should never be any condemnation of land) and you would be hard pressed to find any Supreme Court Justice, regardless of politics, who will support that view.

Again, gents, I agree with you that these condemnations are tough and frustrating — I’m commenting on the notion that your money will simply be seized when the government cannot borrow any more. I’d worry way more about creeping taxes than that—that’s something that actually does happen.
I think it more likely that the floated idea of GRAs (Guaranteed Retirement Accounts) with bipartisan support during the MBS fiasco would be implemented, where either big percentage or all of your retirement savings are placed under government control to "guarantee" you a "fair" return during market turmoil.
 

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I just think it’s better to worry about stuff that is more likely to happen. Like the hypothetical tax law you described just above — that will not ever become law. The possibility is so attenuated that even when we apply Murphy’s law, it will not come to pass.
We're just going to have to agree to disagree on this. I wish that I could have your optimism. One thing that I've learned over the years is what drives leftists. It's a desire for power that will allow absolutely nothing to get in its way. If/when the government loses the ability to borrow money, your money is the difference between having power and not having it. They will let no precedent, law, Constitution or person get in the way. Power is to the leftist what crack is to a crack-head.
 

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Discussion Starter · #29 ·
Random point that's largely unrelated, but I don't think that those 'conservative' business interests are any better than the 'leftists'.

Too many big businesses today are Crapitalists-Crony Capitalists who are really rent seekers exploiting government favoritism to create lucrative niches for themselves. Real capitalism involves voluntary exchange--something that is notably absent in eminent domain cases. Even in cases where the land owner wants to sell, you often see a kickback where the property is dramatically overvalued--essentially letting a politically connected land owner raid the public treasury at the same time they dispose of a low value piece of property.
 

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Too many big businesses today are Crapitalists-Crony Capitalists who are really rent seekers exploiting government favoritism to create lucrative niches for themselves.
We see this all the time in my industry. There are five global companies and then many smaller companies. The five global companies try to use government regulation as a tool to suppress competition from the smaller companies that are far more efficient than they are. They have economies of scale when it comes to buying the software that's necessary to comply with the regulations. We spend as much time fighting their support of government regulations as we do fighting the government regulators themselves.
 

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"Permanent pandemic" is a false assumption. Any infectious disease that is unchecked or mismanaged, can become a pandemic. Ebola could easily have been a pandemic, but isn't. With more people being vaccinated and as vaccine science gets better, spread of said infectious disease will decrease and fall below pandemic levels. Just as the Bubonic plague or pox is not a pandemic today.

On the other hand... America's addiction to consumerism, mindless pop entertainment and propensity to fall prey to hearsay (over facts or science), is most definitely a permanent pandemic.
 

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Discussion Starter · #32 ·
I think you can call it 'the new normal' if you like, instead of 'permanent pandemic.' It amounts to the same thing. An ongoing imposition of various pandemic regulations--social distancing, mask wearing, business closures, etc. And it now apparently includes a permanent 'stimulus' idea--basically direct payments from the government based on massive new money creation. 30% of the dollars currently in circulation were created within the last 16 months. That rate of M2 expansion looks set to continue, or even increase.
 

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Discussion Starter · #33 ·
I totally agree on people not paying attention to science though. The perception of Americans on the deadliness of covid is crazy--something approaching 40% of people think that covid 'most likely' results in death, and that the hospitalization rates exceed 50% (when they are in fact down in the 2% range).
 

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I totally agree on people not paying attention to science though. The perception of Americans on the deadliness of covid is crazy--something approaching 40% of people think that covid 'most likely' results in death, and that the hospitalization rates exceed 50% (when they are in fact down in the 2% range).
Or that the total deaths for 2020 are less than 2019; meaning the "pandemic" of COVID didn't really affect death rates much when you recognize the fact that roughly 7800 people die every day in America. Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying COVID isn't real or that it's not dangerous for some....but if one is relatively young/healthy....they have as much to fear from this virus as any other normal risk we take every day.
 
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Guys, if you don’t believe this “doc who is telling you that you have no cancer”, so to speak,, because I genuinely don’t want you to be eaten up by this worry, then by all means seek a second opinion from another “doc.” I really do care, I just think it’s better to worry about stuff that is more likely to happen. Like the hypothetical tax law you described just above — that will not ever become law. The possibility is so attenuated that even when we apply Murphy’s law, it will not come to pass. All kinds of other stuff, however, will. Take a breather and shoot some of the ammo stash down range and enjoy the fresh spring air. 😄
Back in 2008-2010 almost everything that guys like you were telling guys like me not to worry about, came to pass....the huge one being that we're on the verge of city to city lock downs and checkpoints (travel restriction was one of the big canaries in the mineshaft, as TPTB would need the right pretense to pull it off logistically. I know the idea of foisting a "pandemic" to accomplish a huge degree of social control was thoroughly discussed well before 2008.).......that said, I don't worry....and I'd doubt that anyone here is wringing their hands over anything because preparation is the most natural by product of the choice to live with open eyes.

Here is the January 2020 warning I gave my close friends and family:

Expect the quarantine to last for at least a year, extended in short increments
Expect the voluntary lockdown to become mandatory at some point
Expect that disobedience will first be discouraged, and then slowly the teeth will emerge
Expect at minimum discussing the suspension of habeus corpus
Expect travel restriction
Expect the military to be visibly involved

In concert, a beautiful system of incremental desensitization and social conditioning... incredibly effective because the human brain seeks comfort above all else, both psychological and physical, the gymnastics it can engage in to that end are spectacular. So many deer in headlights, a mouthful of grass, basking in the breeze.

Here is my current warning:

Expect the next one (pandemic) in the next 5-10 years
Expect the lockdown will be mandatory, and understand that right now, they are training the men and women who will be in charge of enforcement and logistically, the next one will be slick. Right now they are preparing the paper pushers, the courts and prisons and the henchmen for the influx.
Expect neighbors snitching on neighbors
Expect immediate teeth for disobeying curfews and travel restrictions
Expect all kinds of emergency executive powers to be granted and individual rights suspended
Expect travel to be heavily restricted (papers please)
Expect the military to be heavily, and visibly involved

Enjoy your fresh air ;)




.
 
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@TexasChris you are attributing positions to me that I haven’t taken. I don’t disagree with most of the warnings you say you gave last year and I gave them, too. I’m specifically disagreeing with the concern about draining bank accounts and the belief that judges will ignore basics of existing takings laws. Notice that several times above I mentioned that there are other things to worry about that are more likely. There are knowns, known unknowns, and unknown unknowns. Worrying about each of these to some limited degree makes sense in the name of preparedness. But obsessing about the most remote possibilities, and construing them to seem likely when they are not, is not actually a form of preparedness, it’s a failure to assess what is worth your time and what simply eats you up. If you are not enjoying the fresh air, then why? How is it helping you?
 

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@TexasChris you are attributing positions to me that I haven’t taken.
I see how it came across as a straw man, but it was not....examples given of outcomes that were deemed too remote to be of concern 12 years ago,.

I’m specifically disagreeing with the concern about draining bank accounts and the belief that judges will ignore basics of existing takings laws.
I wish I had your faith in the legislative system that has aided in the construction of all the controls, corruption and usurpations being discussed.....I don't. Judges will do what they're told by the men and women they answer to....as they have....but who knows, hopefully I'm wrong. To that end, time will tell.

Notice that several times above I mentioned that there are other things to worry about that are more likely. There are knowns, known unknowns, and unknown unknowns. Worrying about each of these to some limited degree makes sense in the name of preparedness. But obsessing about the most remote possibilities, and construing them to seem likely when they are not, is not actually a form of preparedness, it’s a failure to assess what is worth your time and what simply eats you up.
I hear ya, I'd urge a good contemplation of the list of concerns we share, and again, remind you that they were all deemed "remote" at one point. My guess is that there is a lot of legal infrastructure/bureaucracy/procedure being built as we speak, to handle the coming influx....a virus is the governments carte blanche authority for doing anything to people and their property, which about half our nation appears to presently support.

Obsessing is a strong word for a few forum posts, I (and def some others here) certainly enjoy discussing the fringes of just about anything, ymmv.
 
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I think you can call it 'the new normal' if you like, instead of 'permanent pandemic.' It amounts to the same thing. An ongoing imposition of various pandemic regulations--social distancing, mask wearing, business closures, etc. And it now apparently includes a permanent 'stimulus' idea--basically direct payments from the government based on massive new money creation. 30% of the dollars currently in circulation were created within the last 16 months. That rate of M2 expansion looks set to continue, or even increase.
Absolutely not the same thing. One is fact and quantifiable by data. The other, "new normal", is human perception. Furthermore, continued mask wearing wouldn't be necessary if not for the anti-vaxxers and fools who prefer tales by faceless internet/basement prophets instead of people who have dedicated their lives to studying and knowing about pandemics, down to the molecular level.

Another case in point. AIDS was once considered an epidemic and threat of it was the then "new normal". Now that science and medicine has gotten a handle on that virus, just like Ebola, the "new normal" for it is that it is rarely mentioned and rarely top-of-mind for anyone.
 
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