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Anyone here have any thoughts on what's going on in the Ukraine?

Where do you think this goes in the near, midrange, and long term future?

Is this 'Sudetenland, part 2'?

The most amusing part of this so far is Putin taking a page from the Trudeau playbook and calling the Ukrainian's 'Nazis'.
 

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Since I have friends and family there as well as having visited a number of times. I can tell you that this will be no roll over for Putin as Crimea was in 2014.

This has been in planning since then just waiting fir the US to have a weak spineless individual in the whitehouse.

Short term the Russians may defeat the Ukrainian army, but not without paying a heavy price. I doubt Europe or the US will get involved with boots on the ground. So if the army loses it will become guerrilla fighting. The government is currently handing out rifles to anyone that wants one. With this as the case it is likely that Russia will get to relearn the lessons of Afghanistan.


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Not sure what to make of it frankly. There was a separatist election in 2 provinces that wanted to essentially secede and become independent. Apparently, they asked for Russian assistance....and Putin was all too happy to oblige.

It seems somewhat reminiscent of the South wanting to leave the Union and asking for British support.

20% of the Ukrainian population identifies as Russian....much higher in those two contested provinces.

Seems like our media is spinning this as the Trump/Putin/Russian coalition and a 'wag the dog' event to distract from dismal failures at home and the Biden family's alleged criminal ties to the Ukrainian government.

Hard to know what to make of the propaganda coming from both sides frankly.

Does the USA have a vested interest in what happens in Ukraine? IMO, not nearly as much as what happens with the CCP and Taiwan....where 60% of the worlds computer chips emanate. If the CCP takes over Taiwan and wages economic warfare via withholding critical supplies as they did during the pandemic, essential services in this country to could grind to a screeching halt and the downside of the global economy becomes painfully apparent. Especially as we recognize that bringing fab capabilities online would be a 5-10 year affair....as usual, we'll be reactionary rather than proactive.

The consequences of boots on the ground in either case put us closer to WWIII with a major nuclear competitor (and that's to say nothing of the strategic value hypersonics could play in keeping things conventional where "quantity has a quality all its own"). As Einstein said, "I know not what weapons WWIII will be fought, but WWIV will be fought with sticks and stones". The total cost of retaking Taiwan would be enormously larger than Ukraine; if it could even be managed.
 
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Please correct me if I'm wrong.
When the Soviet Union collapsed Russia maintains James Baker under direction of Bush stated NATO would not move one inch closer to Russia than Germany, we have.
Ukraine was promised we would ensure their sovereignty if they gave up their nuclear arsenal. So they also have a point but the 2 main issues Russia is concerned about it NATO putting missiles in Ukraine and the Minsk agreements.
NATO missiles in Ukraine would put them within 5 mins of Moscow and 7 mins from their strategic missile fields. Cuban missile crisis in reverse.
In 2014 the Crimea incident where Russia maintains Crimea who was given to Ukraine about 50 years ago transparently voted to go back to Russia after we inserted our puppet president Zalinsky after a coup. At that time the Donbass region of Ukraine which are the states of Luhansk and Donesk also wanted to join Russia.
This caused Ukraine to take action against the Donbass.
To end the violence the Minsk agreements were agreed upon, Ukraine has never honored this agreement and since Biden took office last year Ukraine started shelling and shooting mortars into the Donbass again
The Donbass region is ethnically Russian and Russia says the people deserve protection.
Putin has been very vocal about this since last year and doesn't want to sit Idle why their people are attacked
Once Luhansk and Donetsk declared their independence and Russia acknowledged it they ask Russia for help.

Russia now maintains the won't occupy Ukraine only demilitarize and remove their government then hold elections ( similar the US ?) .

Russia has way more around Ukraine than they needed to accomplish this.
I believe they are waiting on sanctions and possibly confrontation then they will demand at least the NATO Baltic states leave NATO.

I don't think Putin is making empty threats about other countries that get involved facing the worst destruction in their history.

We need to stay out of this
 
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Since I have friends and family there as well as having visited a number of times. I can tell you that this will be no roll over for Putin as Crimea was in 2014.

This has been in planning since then just waiting fir the US to have a weak spineless individual in the whitehouse.

Short term the Russians may defeat the Ukrainian army, but not without paying a heavy price. I doubt Europe or the US will get involved with boots on the ground. So if the army loses it will become guerrilla fighting. The government is currently handing out rifles to anyone that wants one. With this as the case it is likely that Russia will get to relearn the lessons of Afghanistan.


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First off I hope your family and friends are safe.

From what I've heard the Ukrainian military is mostly been destroyed navy, airforce and military bases, Russia has control of the airspace.

I believe Russia when they say they don't want to occupy Ukraine but want demilitarize them and remove their Government of course they want to install a "friendly " government. I don't think they want another Afghanistan either.

I don't find it strange that Crimea happened under Obama and this is under Biden but nothing happened during Trumps term. The Minsk agreement has never been honored by Ukraine and it seems like Trump basically told Ukraine you are on your own in regards to the Donbass.
 

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Not sure what to make of it frankly. There was a separatist election in 2 provinces that wanted to essentially secede and become independent. Apparently, they asked for Russian assistance....and Putin was all too happy to oblige.

It seems somewhat reminiscent of the South wanting to leave the Union and asking for British support.

20% of the Ukrainian population identifies as Russian....much higher in those two contested provinces.

Seems like our media is spinning this as the Trump/Putin/Russian coalition and a 'wag the dog' event to distract from dismal failures at home and the Biden family's alleged criminal ties to the Ukrainian government.

Hard to know what to make of the propaganda coming from both sides frankly.

Does the USA have a vested interest in what happens in Ukraine? IMO, not nearly as much as what happens with the CCP and Taiwan....where 60% of the worlds computer chips emanate. If the CCP takes over Taiwan and wages economic warfare via withholding critical supplies as they did during the pandemic, essential services in this country to could grind to a screeching halt and the downside of the global economy becomes painfully apparent. Especially as we recognize that bringing fab capabilities online would be a 5-10 year affair....as usual, we'll be reactionary rather than proactive.

The consequences of boots on the ground in either case put us closer to WWIII with a major nuclear competitor (and that's to say nothing of the strategic value hypersonics could play in keeping things conventional where "quantity has a quality all its own"). As Einstein said, "I know not what weapons WWIII will be fought, but WWIV will be fought with sticks and stones". The total cost of retaking Taiwan would be enormously larger than Ukraine; if it could even be managed.
Have to agree the US is ill prepared to fight either Russia or China.
The lack of machine tools domestically would make a protracted war basically unwinnable. Not to mention borrowing money from China to fight China ain't gonna work.
 
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First off I hope your family and friends are safe.

From what I've heard the Ukrainian military is mostly been destroyed navy, airforce and military bases, Russia has control of the airspace.

I believe Russia when they say they don't want to occupy Ukraine but want demilitarize them and remove their Government of course they want to install a "friendly " government. I don't think they want another Afghanistan either.

I don't find it strange that Crimea happened under Obama and this is under Biden but nothing happened during Trumps term. The Minsk agreement has never been honored by Ukraine and it seems like Trump basically told Ukraine you are on your own in regards to the Donbass.
Putin has been saying since 2007 ( Orange Revolution! That he wanted Ukraine back as part of Russia. When his boy got the boot ( not a coup it was the people who stood up and said no) check out Winter on Fire on Netflix.

Ukraine in general wants to be a part of the EU as that is really the only way they can become a more prosperous country.

A whole lot of disinformation going around especially saying that the Ukrainian army is defeated. I have not heard any such news from people who live there.

Crimea was out right thievery by Putin. It was all about having a warm water port for the Russian navy which he already had an agreement with Ukraine in place. He also happens to have a mansion near Yalta. He picked a time when Ukraine was in flux and didn’t really have much of an army. Of course he also picked a time when we had a weak do nothing president. One thing about Russians they typically have excellent timing. That he would choose to go adventuring while we have a demented pedofile in office makes perfect sense.

As far as Donbas area goes this is a mining and heavy industry area so not the best educated folks around. Something to understand is that once you are outside of a city education can get a bit sketchy.

The Minsk agreement has never been honored by either side. Interesting thing though, where did separatists get mortars and artillery? Again Russian long term planning. (Ever read Sun Tzu The Art of War?) it is mandatory study in the Russian military.

Putin might install a new puppet, but he will have to occupy Ukraine to do it and they will kick that one out just as they did the last one. Only this time they have guns. Russian occupiers would be sniped at continuously. Resistance groups are already being formed.

As I said Vladimir has bitten off more than he can chew on this one. He is losing support at home as well.

Slava Ukriena


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Putin has been saying since 2007 ( Orange Revolution! That he wanted Ukraine back as part of Russia. When his boy got the boot ( not a coup it was the people who stood up and said no) check out Winter on Fire on Netflix.

Ukraine in general wants to be a part of the EU as that is really the only way they can become a more prosperous country.

A whole lot of disinformation going around especially saying that the Ukrainian army is defeated. I have not heard any such news from people who live there.

Crimea was out right thievery by Putin. It was all about having a warm water port for the Russian navy which he already had an agreement with Ukraine in place. He also happens to have a mansion near Yalta. He picked a time when Ukraine was in flux and didn’t really have much of an army. Of course he also picked a time when we had a weak do nothing president. One thing about Russians they typically have excellent timing. That he would choose to go adventuring while we have a demented pedofile in office makes perfect sense.

As far as Donbas area goes this is a mining and heavy industry area so not the best educated folks around. Something to understand is that once you are outside of a city education can get a bit sketchy.

The Minsk agreement has never been honored by either side. Interesting thing though, where did separatists get mortars and artillery? Again Russian long term planning. (Ever read Sun Tzu The Art of War?) it is mandatory study in the Russian military.

Putin might install a new puppet, but he will have to occupy Ukraine to do it and they will kick that one out just as they did the last one. Only this time they have guns. Russian occupiers would be sniped at continuously. Resistance groups are already being formed.

As I said Vladimir has bitten off more than he can chew on this one. He is losing support at home as well.

Slava Ukriena


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Winter on Fire is excellent. I appreciate your take on the situation.
 

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At that time the Donbass region of Ukraine which are the states of Luhansk and Donesk also wanted to join Russia.
This caused Ukraine to take action against the Donbass.
To end the violence the Minsk agreements were agreed upon, Ukraine has never honored this agreement and since Biden took office last year Ukraine started shelling and shooting mortars into the Donbass again
@bgreed is the above an accurate assessment, particularly the part in bold?
 

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Interesting post:

The mindset of a soldier. 👇

Believing in something bigger than themselves.

Russia invaded Ukraine this week. A Russian warship approached Snake (Zmiinyi) Island and asked for their surrender.

The tiny outpost in the Black Sea had a choice to make. The boarder guards made the choice that most soldiers wished they would make in that situation.

“Russian warship, go f••k yourself.”

They were bombarded and all 13 were killed. However, they kept their honor.

They’ll be national heroes and have become a rallying cry for the Ukrainian people.

No soldier who’s been to war wants war. We know the toll.

When your homeland is attacked, you defend your family, country, and way of life.

Heroes of Ukraine
 
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@bgreed is the above an accurate assessment, particularly the part in bold?
It’s kind of like two kids in the back seat “ he touched me well he touched me first.” The real question would be, where did the separatists get mortars and artillery from and whose suppling the shells. This is part of Putin’s destabilization plan since 2014 to give him an excuse to do what he is currently doing.


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It’s kind of like two kids in the back seat “ he touched me well he touched me first.” The real question would be, where did the separatists get mortars and artillery from and whose suppling the shells. This is part of Putin’s destabilization plan since 2014 to give him an excuse to do what he is currently doing.


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I think the answer to that is obviously Russia. But who started the violence is really the question as that entity is the aggressor. Whether it was the Ukrainian government or the separatists (or Russia) seems to be in question with scalton's comment.

But yes, I think the revolution in 2013/14 documented in Winter on Fire stoked Russian fears of losing the port in Crimea which prompted the invasion/seizing....and that set in motion this plan to take the contested 'states/provinces'.
 
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Interesting post:

The mindset of a soldier.

Believing in something bigger than themselves.

Russia invaded Ukraine this week. A Russian warship approached Snake (Zmiinyi) Island and asked for their surrender.

The tiny outpost in the Black Sea had a choice to make. The boarder guards made the choice that most soldiers wished they would make in that situation.

“Russian warship, go f••k yourself.”

They were bombarded and all 13 were killed. However, they kept their honor.

They’ll be national heroes and have become a rallying cry for the Ukrainian people.

No soldier who’s been to war wants war. We know the toll.

When your homeland is attacked, you defend your family, country, and way of life.

Heroes of Ukraine
Glory to the heroes


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Glory to the heroes


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Amen. Sad that they had to give their lives, but I'm sure their countrymen thank them sincerely for the sacrifice. I do love their response though.....up there with some of the things the Spartans are purported to have said or even "Nuts" from the Battle of the Bulge.
 

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Putin has been saying since 2007 ( Orange Revolution! That he wanted Ukraine back as part of Russia. When his boy got the boot ( not a coup it was the people who stood up and said no) check out Winter on Fire on Netflix.

Ukraine in general wants to be a part of the EU as that is really the only way they can become a more prosperous country.

A whole lot of disinformation going around especially saying that the Ukrainian army is defeated. I have not heard any such news from people who live there.

Crimea was out right thievery by Putin. It was all about having a warm water port for the Russian navy which he already had an agreement with Ukraine in place. He also happens to have a mansion near Yalta. He picked a time when Ukraine was in flux and didn’t really have much of an army. Of course he also picked a time when we had a weak do nothing president. One thing about Russians they typically have excellent timing. That he would choose to go adventuring while we have a demented pedofile in office makes perfect sense.

As far as Donbas area goes this is a mining and heavy industry area so not the best educated folks around. Something to understand is that once you are outside of a city education can get a bit sketchy.

The Minsk agreement has never been honored by either side. Interesting thing though, where did separatists get mortars and artillery? Again Russian long term planning. (Ever read Sun Tzu The Art of War?) it is mandatory study in the Russian military.

Putin might install a new puppet, but he will have to occupy Ukraine to do it and they will kick that one out just as they did the last one. Only this time they have guns. Russian occupiers would be sniped at continuously. Resistance groups are already being formed.

As I said Vladimir has bitten off more than he can chew on this one. He is losing support at home as well.

Slava Ukriena


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So what caused Putins boy to get the boot? Was it tons of money being poured into Ukraine from the US and Europe to enact a regime change.
Is Zelenskiy really for the Ukrainian people or a frontman for NATO expansion into Ukraine? I seriously don't know but can see it either way. My doubts are mainly from our US policy of regime change.

Sadly Ukrain being between NATO/EU and Russia which lends itself to become a pawn in a power struggle.

As for the Donbass even though they are miners and factory workers with less than stellar education they still consider themselves Russian correct? They are the most eastern part of Ukraine, did they have better lives while under Russia than they now have under Ukraine, I don't know.
You are correct that neither side has honored the Minsk Protocol as both have engaged in shooting at each other but my understanding is Ukraine has never engaged in the talks that were to go along with it.
Zelenskiy wasn't president when they were signed but has so far refused to any discussions. Russia has now used this as their excuse for their actions. Of course the artillery and mortars were given by Russia.
 

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It’s kind of like two kids in the back seat “ he touched me well he touched me first.” The real question would be, where did the separatists get mortars and artillery from and whose suppling the shells. This is part of Putin’s destabilization plan since 2014 to give him an excuse to do what he is currently doing.


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From what I know I agree with this but why did the problems stop during Trumps Presidency? 2014 Crimea under Obama once Trump was elected the fighting between Ukraine and the Donbass basically quit. Then right after Biden took office it flared up again.
I'm not arguing who fired the first shots under Biden but why did it start again.
 

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Tusli on Ukraine:

 
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Tusli on Ukraine:

I really like Tulsi and agree with her assessment that had we given an agreement on Ukraine not joining NATO this might not be happening now.
 
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